Sunday, April 30, 2017

The willing suspension of disbelief–confirmation bias

There is a concept in literary criticism, advanced I believe by Coleridge, termed the willing suspension of disbelief. It explains why people can read with enjoyment and appreciation fantasy or fantastic literature. Now of course it would apply to visual media. Last night there were two polar events. Donald Trump spoke to his base and made extravagant, unsupportable claims for his accomplishments. They loved it. Polls, to the extent that one can place any confidence in them, consistently show 90 some percent of those who supported Trump in the election continue to do so, notwithstanding  what others may say about his performance. There is another concept at work here, confirmation bias. People perceive what they expect or want to perceive.

About 100 miles away, there was the White House Correspondents annual dinner. At this dinner, the White House press solemnly and sanctimoniously talked about their importance. They discussed how they were besieged and in jeopardy. As far as I know, no one has curtailed there're ability to speak and write as they please. Their problem is that increasingly large segments of The population either don't believe them , or more likely, don't care what they say. At the same time, Samantha Bee was hosting a" Not the White House Correspondents" dinner. One of the things she pointed it out was the relentless silly group discussions held on CNN, an outfit that takes itself very seriously. Even those of us who take the press, Including the electronic media, as a valuable tool have had enough of the stupid panel discussion son CNN, MSNBC and Fox. These accomplish nothing generating confirmation bias on both sides of all questions. This is not likely to change.

So, the question is what can be done to improve things in Washington recognizing that for the next four years Trump is here to stay? The Democrats need to do something to nudge Trump in a slightly better direction. That will not happen by frontal attack. The Democrats need to take the best of what Trump has said and use it. Two things suggest themselves. First, democrats should agree that doubling the standard deduction for taxpayers is a good idea because it probably is. Second, democrats should remind Trump of his plan to repatriate at low rates corporate profits languishing offshore. Then he should be reminded there is bipartisan support for his plan to build infrastructure. And, repatriated funds provide basically free money to finance infrastructure. The final thing that Democrats could propose is to agree that certain tax cuts can stimulate the economy. Traditionally, accelerated depreciation and other tax benefits based on capital expenditures were agreed to by both parties to be effective. Democrats should urge Trump to not just give  indiscriminate tax cuts to corporations but to reward them for real stimulating measures such as capital expenditures increased hiring and innovative apprenticeship programs to prepare workers to participate in the modern economy. These are all things consistent with what Trump claims are his agenda and do not require confrontation with him. If the Democrats could convince moderate Republicans, such as Susan Collins and perhaps an independent such as Angus King to approach Trump with these proposals they might get somewhere. It would be useful if the Democrats involved could be somebody other than Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi. As it presently exists, democrats are basically proposing nothing that might actually happen. All these marches and demonstrations are emotionally satisfying but it is highly unlikely they will accomplish anything.

No comments:

Post a Comment