To me, Donald Trump during the debate appeared like a spoiled, petulant teenager who is just been told he can't have the new car he wants. Hey non-statistically significant survey of commentary from and readers of the New York Times, Washington Post etc. finds that conclusion that Donald Trump was perhaps not a disaster but was soundly defeated. So what. It has become more and more clear that the opinions of the elite, the intelligentsia or any other similar term, are relatively unimportant. Whatever effect this and the next debates will have we'll only be measured by the effect it has on the narrow group of undecided or those leaning towards third party candidates.
We can expect Trunp to be better next time. That will mean he will tend more towards opinions and and stay away from issues that have a factual basis. He will simply say that the country has gone to hell and it is the fault of the Washington elite, particularly the Democrats. He will also claim he has the best plan to revive the economy and create jobs, while insisting that anything that what Hillary Clinton proposes is just the same old.
Hillary Clinton has two problems on the economic point. First, although any consensus of competent economists would say that Trumps plan is ridiculous, he has Professor Navarro to cite as an expert who supports them. There is no way to reasonably expect the American voting public to choose between competing experts opinions, particularly since they will be only briefly stated by the candidates. The other big problem Hillary Clinton has in this sector is the TPP. She was for it. She changed position not because of anything Trump said but because of the primary fight with Bernie Sanders. She should be advocating that trade deal. Over 80% of a broad spectrum of economists said that it was a good deal for the US. There was months ago an article in the op-ed section of the New York Times, I think by either Thomas Friedman or David Brooks, discussing the type of trade deal Trump would like to make and demonstrating that this was it. Republicans have long been for free trade, probably more than Democrats. The authorization for the TPP was bipartisan. She has really dug herself a hole and I don't know exactly how she gets out of it . The best she can do is state
in so many words, Yes I was for it but after mature consideration I changed my mind. She has got to quit disassembling on this issue.
She needs to direct the next debate as much as possible towards foreign-policy. Donald Trump displays total ignorance and nobody believes he has a "secret plan." She should be as specific as possible about her own plan. It is as to foreign-policy that Donald Trump's reckless language and demeanor concerns the voting public the most. She needs to exploit tha
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Monday, September 26, 2016
And now the spin begins
First of all, my apologies to Lester Holt. He was up to the task. I also like the format that permitted extended discussions of the topic. After these debates, I typically go back and forth from FOXNews to MS NBC. That gives me some sense of the reaction from left and right although it does not encompass the crazies on the Internet. My senses that Lester Holt will be criticized by the right and there will be dog whistle type of innuendo. The Internet will doubtless be a blaze.
Listening to both sides, it's quite clear that the Clinton supporters we're pleased and the Trump supporters were not. Now, in postfact politics, question is does it make any difference. Does phenomenology or psychological set theory or just plain prejudice and ignorance rule the day? Having watched the debate in trumps incoherent answers which became worse and worse I can't imagine why anybody could think of voting for him. But why do I think I am immune from the same tendencies that affect his supporters?
It will be interesting to see just how inventive the spin Doctors can be. And, of course, it will be interesting to see the reaction to the spin followed by the spin to the reaction. One thing is sure, it will be a downward spiral.
Listening to both sides, it's quite clear that the Clinton supporters we're pleased and the Trump supporters were not. Now, in postfact politics, question is does it make any difference. Does phenomenology or psychological set theory or just plain prejudice and ignorance rule the day? Having watched the debate in trumps incoherent answers which became worse and worse I can't imagine why anybody could think of voting for him. But why do I think I am immune from the same tendencies that affect his supporters?
It will be interesting to see just how inventive the spin Doctors can be. And, of course, it will be interesting to see the reaction to the spin followed by the spin to the reaction. One thing is sure, it will be a downward spiral.
It is debatable
The much awaited debate occurs tonight. But it will not be what it should be. It should be questions to each candidate about their domestic economic plans, foreign relation policies focusing on the middle east, trade policy and the social unrest which is gripping the United States. The questioning should be relentless, much like a cross examination probing evasive answers and inconsistent positions, then and now.
First, the two-minute answer is ridiculous. The moderator should spend at least 10 minutes with each candidate on these issues. We know what Donald Trump will do. He will primarily restate his position that everything the Obama administration has done, with the complicity of Hillary Clinton, has been a disaster. His stock answer will simply be he is going to change everything that has been done in the past eight yrs. Recall that he has said that he could defeat Isis in two weeks and knows more about Isis than the generals. It would be fair to ask how he is going to do this. The clear consensus based on history is that his protectionist trade policies would be a disaster. Will he be confronted with this? Unless the moderator is aggressive and relentless Trump will skate through this debate.
Hillary Clinton should be asked the same sort of questions and confronted with any inconsistencies with past actions or statements. She has to be asked about her emails and classified information. She better have a forthright answer.
I wish I could be more optimistic about how Lester Holt will perform. I do not think he will be up to the job. What I would like to see is two moderators. One chosen by each party. The one chosen by the Democrats could only ask questions of the Republican candidate and vice versa. That of course will never happen. In this era of post-truth politics, I fear we are going to see at least from Trump mainly theater. Regrettably, it may well be effective. It will be up to Hillary Clinton to probe Trumps various positions but this format will make that difficult. I hope I am wrong.
First, the two-minute answer is ridiculous. The moderator should spend at least 10 minutes with each candidate on these issues. We know what Donald Trump will do. He will primarily restate his position that everything the Obama administration has done, with the complicity of Hillary Clinton, has been a disaster. His stock answer will simply be he is going to change everything that has been done in the past eight yrs. Recall that he has said that he could defeat Isis in two weeks and knows more about Isis than the generals. It would be fair to ask how he is going to do this. The clear consensus based on history is that his protectionist trade policies would be a disaster. Will he be confronted with this? Unless the moderator is aggressive and relentless Trump will skate through this debate.
Hillary Clinton should be asked the same sort of questions and confronted with any inconsistencies with past actions or statements. She has to be asked about her emails and classified information. She better have a forthright answer.
I wish I could be more optimistic about how Lester Holt will perform. I do not think he will be up to the job. What I would like to see is two moderators. One chosen by each party. The one chosen by the Democrats could only ask questions of the Republican candidate and vice versa. That of course will never happen. In this era of post-truth politics, I fear we are going to see at least from Trump mainly theater. Regrettably, it may well be effective. It will be up to Hillary Clinton to probe Trumps various positions but this format will make that difficult. I hope I am wrong.
Sunday, September 18, 2016
Trump,s spin doctors go into overdrive
An emergency meeting of Donald Trump's campaign strategists occurred in the last few days. The discussion was as follows:
"kellyanne's pollsters have some disturbing news. They have found that the birther controversy is negatively affecting our candidate. We have got to do something. The problem is we just changed entirely his economic and tax program yesterday. Remember what happened to Romney when he was labeled a flip floper. He has got to change his position but how can we spin it to avoid that problem. I've got it, someone said. Let's blame it on Hillary Clinton. How can we do that? She never said anything either during the 2008 campaign or later remotely suggesting she thought Obama was not fully qualified to be president. Well, there must be someone somewhere who said some stupid remark that weekend used to pin birther controversy on her. Go find it. But, do we want Donald questioned on this point? No, he's had enough trouble lately staying on message. We will send out the surrogates. These guys can say anything without blushing. But, will anybody buy this.? why not, look at the crap we have fed them already and we're still neck and neck. Never under estimate the willing suspension of disbelief. Now, let's have Trump make a short change of position and take no questions and then we will send out the surrogates. If we can get truck to the winners Circle we will be known as the greatest group of bullshitters ever to engage in politics. That's the legacy I want my grandchildren to remember me by."
Of course this never happened. No one could be this deplorable. Oops, shouldn't use that word.
"kellyanne's pollsters have some disturbing news. They have found that the birther controversy is negatively affecting our candidate. We have got to do something. The problem is we just changed entirely his economic and tax program yesterday. Remember what happened to Romney when he was labeled a flip floper. He has got to change his position but how can we spin it to avoid that problem. I've got it, someone said. Let's blame it on Hillary Clinton. How can we do that? She never said anything either during the 2008 campaign or later remotely suggesting she thought Obama was not fully qualified to be president. Well, there must be someone somewhere who said some stupid remark that weekend used to pin birther controversy on her. Go find it. But, do we want Donald questioned on this point? No, he's had enough trouble lately staying on message. We will send out the surrogates. These guys can say anything without blushing. But, will anybody buy this.? why not, look at the crap we have fed them already and we're still neck and neck. Never under estimate the willing suspension of disbelief. Now, let's have Trump make a short change of position and take no questions and then we will send out the surrogates. If we can get truck to the winners Circle we will be known as the greatest group of bullshitters ever to engage in politics. That's the legacy I want my grandchildren to remember me by."
Of course this never happened. No one could be this deplorable. Oops, shouldn't use that word.
Tuesday, September 6, 2016
The politics of fantasy
Recently, Donald Trump has surpassed Hillary Clinton in the polls as being more trustworthy. There is no doubt that Hillary Clinton has provided fuel for republican attacks on her character and trustworthiness. And, the Republicans have done a good job in capitalizing on this opportunity. What is hard to understand is how the voting public views Trump as authentic and trustworthy. Beginning years ago with his position that Pres. Obama was not born an American citizen, a position he has never repudiated, he has been a total bullshit artist. His campaign has been based almost entirely on an immigration policy that wildly overstates the problem and offers no solutions except a wall. Apparently he has never heard of aircraft, Boats and the Canadian border.
What we are increasingly learning is that the American public believes in fantasy. The biggest fantasy is that the best qualification for the most difficult job in the world, the presidency of the United States, is a total lack of experience. That fantasy extends to the proposition that there can be a massive, undefined change in the entire political and economic system of the United States. That change is undefined but is expected to produce miraculous results. Fantasy politics was successfully employed by the Republicans starting with the Ronald Reagan administration. The fantasy there was that a tax cut would solve all problems by shrinking Government and that everyone would be better off, no matter where the tax cuts actually occurred. It became quite apparent that telling the American public that the best thing they could do for their country was to pay less taxes was a pretty easy sell.
Notwithstanding his surrogates denials, trump's position on immigration is constantly changing. In fact, it is changing for the better .But other than building the wall, it is little different than the policy of the current administration and all those Republican rivals that Trump belittled during the debates.
We can now hope that having raised a great deal of money, the Democrats will saturate the air waves with clips from all of the things Trump has said in the last year. If, having watched them, the voting public still believes Trump to be trustworthy and authentic then we will know for sure that fantasy and delusion rules the day. On her part, Hillary Clinton has got to step up to the wicket , confess her previous mistakes and affirmatively push her policy agendas. Finally, during the debates the moderators must ask tough questions and demand answers.
What we are increasingly learning is that the American public believes in fantasy. The biggest fantasy is that the best qualification for the most difficult job in the world, the presidency of the United States, is a total lack of experience. That fantasy extends to the proposition that there can be a massive, undefined change in the entire political and economic system of the United States. That change is undefined but is expected to produce miraculous results. Fantasy politics was successfully employed by the Republicans starting with the Ronald Reagan administration. The fantasy there was that a tax cut would solve all problems by shrinking Government and that everyone would be better off, no matter where the tax cuts actually occurred. It became quite apparent that telling the American public that the best thing they could do for their country was to pay less taxes was a pretty easy sell.
Notwithstanding his surrogates denials, trump's position on immigration is constantly changing. In fact, it is changing for the better .But other than building the wall, it is little different than the policy of the current administration and all those Republican rivals that Trump belittled during the debates.
We can now hope that having raised a great deal of money, the Democrats will saturate the air waves with clips from all of the things Trump has said in the last year. If, having watched them, the voting public still believes Trump to be trustworthy and authentic then we will know for sure that fantasy and delusion rules the day. On her part, Hillary Clinton has got to step up to the wicket , confess her previous mistakes and affirmatively push her policy agendas. Finally, during the debates the moderators must ask tough questions and demand answers.
Friday, September 2, 2016
The real Donald came back–what a jerk
Donald Trump's speech in Arizona the other night was useful and important. As flip Wilson used to say, what you see is what you get. We saw a despicable dishonest miserable human being. When I was younger I used to work as a laborer on construction projects. We would be paid on Friday and go out for a few beers. Occasionally, someone would have too much and start ranting about how stupid and corrupt everyone in Government was. That would be followed by statements that this guy if allowed could fix everything in short order. That is what Trump reminds me of–a drunk in a bar.
Let's start with his dishonesty. He claims the American economy is terrible. In fact it is the best in the world. Unemployment is 4.9% the poverty rate has been falling since 2012. Median earnings have risen by 5% in real terms in the past two years. In Arizona, Trump appeared to blame our economic woes on illegal immigration from Mexico. In fact, in the last few years we have a net negativmigration from Mexico. The administration has deported 2.8 million point illegal immigrants from Mexico. All studies indicate that illegal immigrants from Mexico provide a net benefit to the American economy. When Trump is in the mid west he blames America,s mostly imaginary problems on the Chinese. Were he to go to the Pacific Northwest, he would probably blame economic woes, real or imagined, on the Canadiens.
He is going to seal the southern border to keep us secure. How many terrorists have come to the United States across the Mexican border? At present, the Canadians are admitting at least 10 times as many immigrants from the Middle East as the United States. What about that Canadian border?
Trump says that any immigrants will have to agree to American values. Based upon his recent speech, apparently immigrants will have to profess a firm belief in fear, anger, intolerance and selfishness. There is no doubt that terrorism practice by Wahabi.fundamentalists is a serious problem. But his border wall solution is delusionary. Terrorism is a world wide problem requiring a sustained cooperative and difficult effort.
All of the things he claims he would do would require a vastly larger federal government
He has no foreign-policy. He has economic solutions that are totally imaginary and would cause ten to $15 trillion in deficits if adopted. Have we not seen enough?
Let's start with his dishonesty. He claims the American economy is terrible. In fact it is the best in the world. Unemployment is 4.9% the poverty rate has been falling since 2012. Median earnings have risen by 5% in real terms in the past two years. In Arizona, Trump appeared to blame our economic woes on illegal immigration from Mexico. In fact, in the last few years we have a net negativmigration from Mexico. The administration has deported 2.8 million point illegal immigrants from Mexico. All studies indicate that illegal immigrants from Mexico provide a net benefit to the American economy. When Trump is in the mid west he blames America,s mostly imaginary problems on the Chinese. Were he to go to the Pacific Northwest, he would probably blame economic woes, real or imagined, on the Canadiens.
He is going to seal the southern border to keep us secure. How many terrorists have come to the United States across the Mexican border? At present, the Canadians are admitting at least 10 times as many immigrants from the Middle East as the United States. What about that Canadian border?
Trump says that any immigrants will have to agree to American values. Based upon his recent speech, apparently immigrants will have to profess a firm belief in fear, anger, intolerance and selfishness. There is no doubt that terrorism practice by Wahabi.fundamentalists is a serious problem. But his border wall solution is delusionary. Terrorism is a world wide problem requiring a sustained cooperative and difficult effort.
All of the things he claims he would do would require a vastly larger federal government
He has no foreign-policy. He has economic solutions that are totally imaginary and would cause ten to $15 trillion in deficits if adopted. Have we not seen enough?
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