Tuesday, May 15, 2018

Trump's Middle East Caper

Donnie was pissed. Ever since the campaign he had said he would shit- can the Iran deal(the worst deal he had ever seen). For months he had been requesting his intelligence people to tell him that Iran had breached the agreement but they wouldn't. It would be up to him to come up with a reason, not something he was particularly good at. The French and the Germans have been urging him not to back out of the deal. He didn't particularly care about the German woman but be kind of liked the French guy with the hot wife and nifty parades. They urged him to make a collateral deal and keep the present one in place. Donnie thought about it but decided that's for pussies. He would bring down his wrath upon them and bring them to their knees. Then he would propose a deal they couldn't refuse. That's the art of the deal. So he pulled the plug and began to sanction the hell out of Iran.

So what now? The first move is Iran's. Will the comparatively moderate President maintain control and cause Iran to honor its commitments to the rest of the signatories? Or will  Iran go flank speed towards developing its nuclear capabilities? If Iran does honor its commitments, what will the other signatories do? Will the Europeans continue to trade with Iran and not reinstate sanctions? Russia probably would and who knows about China. If the Europeans stick with the deal Will trump caused the US to install sanctions against pretty much the rest of the industrialized World? What would that happen? Probably a slump in the stock market and maybe a recession.

It's hard to imagine that the rest of the world wants to be under the thumb of Donald J Trump. One would think that would be intolerable, particularly now when it appears that the United States can't be trusted to on honor its commitments.

Meanwhile, the United States has apparently abandoned its historic position as being the balancing power and the brokering power in the middle east. We now side with Saudi Arabia, that wonderfully democratic country, against Iran. We side with the Sunni against the Shia. We side with Israel against the Palestinians while continuing to say we are nurturing a peace process. We apparently no longer support the Kurds notwithstanding their role with us in defeating Ises and we are probably clueless about what to do with Turkey. If there is an endgame there it's pretty hard to see it.

Now, as of this afternoon, the wonderful relationship between Donnie and that nice guy Kim appears to be maybe cratering. Stay tuned.

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