The bully in the pulpit

Recalling the misplaced hysteria that accompanied the election of Barack Obama in 2008, I have tried to react to the election of Donald the Trump with some measure of equanimity. As it was completely apparent during the campaign that nearly every thing he said was either bullshit or lying, one could adopt a posture of wait and see. I suppose I am still in that mode. But, it does continually appear that what we saw is what we get. As became apparent, his approach to business has been to whenever possible strong-arm those with whom he deals. He readily took advantage of his superior position to beat down subs and suppliers. It looks like that will be his approach to trade policy and perhaps foreign-policy in general. The best example is his treatment of Boeing, whose executives have the temerity to criticize him. It is also quite clear that that will be his approach to Mexico. Because the United States is the richest and most powerful nation on earth and has by far the most military capabilities, he can probably get away with it in the short run with respect to certain companies and countries. He will of course claim total victory, much like George W. Bush on the deck of that aircraft carrier before everything went to hell.

How will that work with China? Drop is still talking about China's currency valuations when that is a problem in the past. He undoubtedly does not know that there was a dual system of currency valuations for quite some time where the more developed countries flooded their currencies and the emerging nations pegged theirs. And he obviously has no knowledge of the Washington consensus circa 1999 and how that affected international trade. He does not know what happen to the Asian Tigers and how they started hoarding dollars and protecting their currencies. To the extent Trump is successful in beating down companies and countries, it will serve to increase the price of goods in this country wether made here or imported. It is not going to bring back those jobs lost in the Rust Belt to any great extent. Trump seems oblivious to the effect of technological innovations on manufacturing, service and other employment. The cruel irony is that those Midwestern voters who elected trunk Will not to any extent to get their jobs back and will be paying far more for goods, particularly the type of goods they buy at Walmart which are manufactured in the Far East.

It remains to be seen what Trump and Paul Ryan can agree upon, other than tax cuts at the top. Even his proposed infrastructure program which could increase employment and add to aggregate demand, seems to be cluttered up with some crazy tax scheme that also involves privatization of public facilities.

There seems to be no indication of how Trump would deal with the EEC. He hasn't discussed, For instance, retaliating against Ireland for their role in ace erosion of this country, as witnessed by their dealings with Apple.

Perhaps the most frightening thing about Trump his Is obvious galloping megalomania. To paraphrase something said about George W. Bush, the combination of arrogance ignorance and incompetence is breathtaking. One can only hope that some of the predictions of loss of jobs an worldwide economic distress his trade policies make create do not occur, Either because he changes his mind or perhaps the Lord will smile upon us in this hour hour of need.