So, the summit is on. How did we get there? Upon Trump's presidency beginning Kim ratcheted up his nuclear and missile testing. Trump rose to the bait. Nobody messes with Donald Trump. I have bigger missiles than you and more bombs. Eventually, Kim said let's have a sit down. The great dealmaker said you bet. Then we went into off again on again. Trump was further nearly salivating by discussions of a Nobel prize for dealing with Kim. Now is the summit is set, probably, for June 12.
Kim is not coming to the White House as a supplicant. Rather he is meeting as an equal on neutral ground in Singapore. In the build up to this, Kim has visited China twice. China is of course much more important to him than the United States. We can assume was some assurance he has discussed his strategy with China. The best intelligence we have about China is that it wishes to keep North Korea as an independent Communist buffer state in Asia but would like to see the elimination of the nuclear weapons. Kim has also had discussions with Putin. He clearly has a plan B.
Meanwhile Trump, has set the stage for the negotiations by pissing off all his allies with stupid tariffs. He tends to forget his big sanction programs require cooperation. It is an open question how long our allies are going to put up with this before they begin serious attempts to work around the United States. We may expect to see attempts to reduce the importance of the United States dollar as a reserve currency including a new basket of currencies at the IMF. It is also probable that claims will be brought to the WTO as these tariffs have been spuriously justified on the grounds of national security, something no one buys.
So, trump, still salivating over his Nobel prize has seriously reduced his bargaining position. Does it make any difference? Probably not. At this summit we can confidently expect nothing but theater and no hard results. Trump, however, Will claim he has accomplished something no one else in history has been able to do saying that Kim uses the word"Denuclearzation". He will exaggerate if not outright lie about what he has accomplished. One thing is sure, as far as a world wide reduction of nuclear weapons it will be far less than the Iran deal. Were Trump consistent, and there is your fantasy for the week, he would have to say it is the worst deal he ever saw if indeed he claims it was a deal and we know he will have to because he is, after all, the world's greatest dealmaker even though he has never made any as president and will not on this occasion.
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