The willing suspension of disbelief–confirmation bias

There is a concept in literary criticism, advanced I believe by Coleridge, termed the willing suspension of disbelief. It explains why people can read with enjoyment and appreciation fantasy or fantastic literature. Now of course it would apply to visual media. Last night there were two polar events. Donald Trump spoke to his base and made extravagant, unsupportable claims for his accomplishments. They loved it. Polls, to the extent that one can place any confidence in them, consistently show 90 some percent of those who supported Trump in the election continue to do so, notwithstanding  what others may say about his performance. There is another concept at work here, confirmation bias. People perceive what they expect or want to perceive.

About 100 miles away, there was the White House Correspondents annual dinner. At this dinner, the White House press solemnly and sanctimoniously talked about their importance. They discussed how they were besieged and in jeopardy. As far as I know, no one has curtailed there're ability to speak and write as they please. Their problem is that increasingly large segments of The population either don't believe them , or more likely, don't care what they say. At the same time, Samantha Bee was hosting a" Not the White House Correspondents" dinner. One of the things she pointed it out was the relentless silly group discussions held on CNN, an outfit that takes itself very seriously. Even those of us who take the press, Including the electronic media, as a valuable tool have had enough of the stupid panel discussion son CNN, MSNBC and Fox. These accomplish nothing generating confirmation bias on both sides of all questions. This is not likely to change.

So, the question is what can be done to improve things in Washington recognizing that for the next four years Trump is here to stay? The Democrats need to do something to nudge Trump in a slightly better direction. That will not happen by frontal attack. The Democrats need to take the best of what Trump has said and use it. Two things suggest themselves. First, democrats should agree that doubling the standard deduction for taxpayers is a good idea because it probably is. Second, democrats should remind Trump of his plan to repatriate at low rates corporate profits languishing offshore. Then he should be reminded there is bipartisan support for his plan to build infrastructure. And, repatriated funds provide basically free money to finance infrastructure. The final thing that Democrats could propose is to agree that certain tax cuts can stimulate the economy. Traditionally, accelerated depreciation and other tax benefits based on capital expenditures were agreed to by both parties to be effective. Democrats should urge Trump to not just give  indiscriminate tax cuts to corporations but to reward them for real stimulating measures such as capital expenditures increased hiring and innovative apprenticeship programs to prepare workers to participate in the modern economy. These are all things consistent with what Trump claims are his agenda and do not require confrontation with him. If the Democrats could convince moderate Republicans, such as Susan Collins and perhaps an independent such as Angus King to approach Trump with these proposals they might get somewhere. It would be useful if the Democrats involved could be somebody other than Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi. As it presently exists, democrats are basically proposing nothing that might actually happen. All these marches and demonstrations are emotionally satisfying but it is highly unlikely they will accomplish anything.

Collection day

Donnie has announced that he intends to send South Korea a bill for about $1 billion to pay for the antimissile missiles we recently delivered. It is not clear whether South Korea actually asked for those missiles or how well they work but they are there. Donny was also going to send bills to various European countries for the dues they owed to the US for NATO. Just in time, he was told that's not how it works and that each country was only required to spend 2% of its GDP on various forms of military and defense costs. Donnie said that was the worst deal he'd ever seen negotiated.

Donnie also sent a bill to his new friend President Xi for room and board at donnie's resort, Mal de Mer. As a token of Donnie's friendship, the chocolate cake was on the house. President Xi is eligible now for the frequent guest discount and Donnie expects him to become a regular visitor assuming that he convinces Kim to give up his nuclear weapons. Donnie was asked whether a bill was being sent to Donald Junior and Eric for the security costs incurred on their frequent trips to foreign countries for photo ops at new Trump hotels. Donnie's scoffed at this saying the benefits to the American brand that accrues from these trips is immeasurable. Donnie hastened to add that he takes no part in this business, he just owns it.

Donnie was asked whether the government was providing security for Ivanka and Marla. Donnie responded "Who"?

It's simple–he is incompetent

The administration and it's head twit often blow smoke about how the the government about how the government needs to run more like a business. Putting aside for the moment that that is a truly stupid notion it would be interesting if it were. Presumably the government would seek to maximize taxation and minimize services and benefits provided in order to maximize profits. Those profits would probably be stashed over seas someplace I against the day that the whole enterprise collapses.

But let's think more about this concept. Let's assume that Donnie interviewed with a major business Corporation for the job of CEO. During the process he stated that the corporation was a mess, That he was going to cancel all of its supplier and sales contracts, bring in new executive vice presidents and department heads, reorganize and revitalize the entire enterprise. He stated his intention to do this quickly and named specific actions he was going to take. Then, after taking control and naming his new team, he started changing his mind and/or simply not doing the major changes  promised. He immediately fired one of his top executives for being a liar and we now know he might also be a criminal. As the company has certainly environmentally sensitive Business lines, he names as his environmental executive someone who detests the environment. He names as his head of human resources and training someone who has no experience and believes it should be done somewhere else. He names as his chief legal officer someone who embarks on a campaign to bring legal action against its employees and subsidiaries. He names as one of his closest advisers a person who wants to dismantle the entire corporation and reduce its size. Then he brings it in his children as executives notwithstanding that they have no experience that would qualify them for those posts. One, his son-in-law he puts in charge of nearly every thing, assuming apparently he is a jack of all trades. It becomes clear that he certainly is a master of none.

When he begins to be criticized for nothing positive happening, he points to a series of memos he is sent saying" make something happen". When criticized for not and budget plan, he sends his financial officers to the Board of Directors with a proposal that says" raise profits and decrease expenses". Having done to change the benefit programs of the company, he does nothing but says it will be great. When the criticism gets more vocal, he calls his entire executive headset department heads to the office, tells them nothing new and sends them back after a lot of photo ops.

Now I am pretty sure that if this were a business corporation , Donnie would be out of there. When asked about his performance, the members of the board who voted to hire him say they knew he was and inexperienced jerk so they got what they wanted. If things aren't working out, it must be someone else's fault.

Of course, the government is not a business corporation and there are no quick mechanisms for eliminating an incompetent CEO. As far as the satisfied voters who put him in there, about all you can say about that is that it is a good time to read cognitive science.

It becomes increasingly clear that there is little point and discussing one by one his changes, inconsistencies, lies and stupid actions. He is ignorant and incompetent and that says it all.

The return of voodoo economics

With today's announcement by the Trump administration it has become clear that tax" reform" really means tax cuts for wealthy individuals and corporations. There are a few crumbs, such as doubling the standard deduction, for those towards the bottom but most of the benefits go to entities and individuals who already have more cash and assets then they need. There seems to be no requirement that the receipt of this largess be accompanied by increased capital expenditures or R&D expenditures. Even the proponents of this knowledge meant this will create massive deficits on a static basis. But guess how they justify this. You've got it, massive growth leading to wildly increasing tax revenues. It's hard to look into the future when you are incapable of looking at the past and that would be these guys.

You may recall when George HW Bush use the term voodoo economics to describe candidate Ronald Reagan's adoption of Arthur Laffer's economics. This was before his epiphany that if he wished to be on the ticket he needed a kind of deepwater economic conversion. It is dollars to donuts  that we will be seeing Arthur Laffer on the TV soon.

For the Republicans it is back to the gospel. Do they really believe that the American voter is gullible enough to believe that the best thing a citizen can do for his country is pay less taxes? And that as a result everyone will have more of everything including benefits supplied by the government without any cost. Yes they do believe that and yes the American voter is gullible enough to swallow that bait.

Caddy shack redux

We now learn that the State Department is using its resources to promote mal de mer, Trumps's Florida golf resort. Even for these guys, by which I mean the Trump administration, this is pretty shabby. The landed gentry around New York used to refer to people like Trump as nouveau riche. This was not a complementary designation. It was used by rather snooty, smug people to refer to those with new money and privilege. If you had not had these things for 100 years or so , you just didn't fit. The term also invoked a rather boorish person, one who practiced conspicuous consumption and flagrant self-aggrandizement. Those of us who were not to the manor born also tended to be rather disparaging about these people. We typically just called them self-important jerks.

This news provoked in me for some reason a memory of the movie Caddy shack which also takes place at a private golf resort or club. More specifically, the character played by Rodney Dangerfield leaped into my mind. Trump, like Dangerfield is often hilarious. When this panjandrum sits with great pomposity and solemnity and describes his nonexisting accomplishments as president, speaks continually of the really really remarkable, very fantastic things he is about to do, and then signs a piece of paper which he holds up demonstrating that he can write in cursive, Rodney comes to mind.

Now that we have a few hundred television channels searching for content, one answer is creating a series based upon a prior successful movie. If Caddy Shack, the Series, comes to be made I know who could play the part formerly played by the dear departed Rodney. It is somebody who really likes being on television and it is not Arnold Schwarzenegger.

So what is your plan ?

Trump has summoned all 100 senators to the White House, apparently to discuss North Korea. Of course, the it is also just to show that can do so. As he will have them there, perhaps he may also discuss the Middle East. So far, he has no ostensible plan for either of these areas other than to send Jared, his favorite mute. In the Middle East, you may recall his statement that he knew more about Isis than the generals and later that these  unknowledgeable generals would present a plan to him to deal with Isis within 30 days of his inauguration. During the campaign, each candidate that expressed any kind of plan for the Middle East, not including Donald who expressed no plan, said basically the same thing and that was the need to form a coalition with our middle east allies to confront control and defeat Isis. As far as North Korea is concerned, either Donnie or Xi are to convince Kim to back off.

Neither of these things has happened. What is clearly needed as somebody who is really good at making deals, really really great, fantastic deals. Such a person could solve these problems quickly. We clearly should have elected as president someone who is really good, really fantastic, at making deals. If only such a person had surfaced during the campaign we wouldn't have these problems. We would have  really, very very remarkable deals. It would be fantastic.

The March for Ignorance

As has been widely stated in the fake news, there are Marches and gatherings for science taking place all over the world. As usual, the fake news media is wildly overstating what will be a few handfuls of Cranks giving deceptive speeches to gullible audiences.

In opposition to this nonsense, the Trump administration and its core supporters are organizing Marches for Ignorance . In charge of organizing these events the administration has chosen EPA secretary Pruitt. As President Trump stated" Pruitt is a widely acquainted with ignorance and is in fact often identified with it". Among the faux sciences to be exposed at these events are all forms of molecular biology, particle physics and cosmology and, of course, the mother of all faux sciences climatology. Those practitioners of these faux sciences will be branded heretics and will lose the right to vote or hold office in the US. The administration is also considering other forms of punishment such as those found in Leviticus. Trump announced that in the next few days he will be signing an executive order rescinding the so-called laws of these sciences." Much of these so-called scientific principles were either created or advanced during the failed Obama administration", Trump stated." In fact by this order I am canceling or rescinding 100 years of so called Scientific advancement in the first 100 days of my administration. This is a very very remarkable, fantastic accomplishment and has never been accomplished by any previous administration during the entire course of those administrations."

Trump and Pruitt jointly announced that the way to see the future is to look deep, deep into the rear view mirror, as far into the past as one is able. If it looks dark, that is probably because you are in one of those wonderful coal mines, hearing the joyful laughter of those 11-year-old boys as they work away with their pick and shovels, rather like the seven dwarfs. We will make America great again, just like it was in 1900. We will get rid of Medicare and social security because hardly anyone will live long enough to need them. Without vaccines, which are a form of poison administered to gullible populations, periodic plagues will create plenty of space and opportunities for those who survive.