Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Once upon a Time in Singapore

On the dusty streets of Singapore, two gunslingers faced off at high noon. They have been threatening to do each other in for sometime now. The townspeople fled from the street awaiting the bloody confrontation. The two-faced off. Donnie,how are you said one? Kimmy said the other, You are looking great. Let's have our picture taken. Let's go into the saloon and have a short meeting. After about an hour, the two emerged saying we have solved all the problems between us. Kimmy has agreed to denuclearize and I am agreeing to lift sanctions and threaten him no more and to withdraw US troops from the Peninsula. In fact, I see no reason to have US troops in that part of the Pacific at all. This Kimmy is a really sweet guy. If only I had known. Donnie, you are the best said Kimmy.

Look, said Donnie. We wrote our agreement on a napkin in the bar. When you are a great dealmaker it is so easy. I am looking forward to Real estate development, even though  I'm not actively involved anymore but my company is, on the North Korean Riviera. It will be huge.

So this scripted deal went down. Now all the pundents are saying yeah but the devil is in the details.(They love to say that.) Even Donnie has said there are details to be worked out but like everybody else he says it will take years. But, the important historic event, an agreement ,has been made by me and my new pal. No one else could've done it.

It appears as though Donnies feral brain got this one right. He is going to ride this on the campaign trail like a trick rider. As far as he is concerned the deal is done and his greatness has been once more demonstrated. Will this work? Probably. This is particularly true because the Democrats as usual are doing nothing, offering nothing and serving up warmed over Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer. Kim is now a big player on the International scene and this will doubtless help him at home. Remember, he sometimes finds it convenient or necessary to murder his rivals in order to maintain absolute control. This cannot but help him.
Meanwhile, in China, Zi is smiling. He wants a stable communist regime in North Korea and he would prefer some measure of disarmament, particularly nuclear weapons in North Korea. He wants a decreased US presence in his region so that he can become more and more important and powerful to all East Asian nations. He will now be even more able to blatantly disregard the sanctions against North Korea because Donnie is definitely not going to complain loudly. With enemies like Donnie Xi does not need friends.

Monday, June 11, 2018

Let's make a deal

Donnie, our feckless leader, is in Singapore to meet with Kim. He is well prepared for this meeting because he has attitude and instincts and incredible negotiating skills. He has demonstrated the latter by all the incredible deals he has negotiated during his presidency. At last count, the number is zero. He just left the negotiating session at the G7 summit in Canada where he refused to sign on to the joint statement his underlings had negotiated. He then had a temper tantrum on the plane to Singapore because Troudeaux had the effrontery to say that Canada was not going to be pushed around by Trump. His so-called economic advisers said that Trump could not be seen to be weak going into the summit with Kim. Apparently they believe he is much better off appearing to be a blustering buffoon.

Donnie is apparently prepared to spend several hours one-on-one with Kim. Apparently he thinks that the sheer power of his personality will Kim to say I will do whatever you want and right away and then maybe you can do something for me later.

While Donnie has been pissing off all his real allies, Kim has been spending time being the jolly fat boy who appears to love everyone. He has also destroyed one of his test sites, not shoot off any more rockets lately and has not acted at all belligerent. Nothing will come of this summit other than Trump announcing that he did something no other President has ever been able to do. He will not explain that what that means is that no other president has ever been made quite a fool of by a tinpot dictator. At the end of this cartoon show, it is pretty clear that to the rest of the world Kim will appear to be the most reasonable and rational. Of course, when one is compared to Donald Trump that is not hard.

If one wished to symbolize this meeting it is probably best done by pointing out that Dennis Rodman showed up representing some block chain Financial system used in the pot industry. Maybe he can negotiate a deal to bring pot and block chain financing to North Korea, thus bringing some economic growth. Perhaps Trump will bring Rodman into his administration. He would fit right in.


Sunday, June 10, 2018

Trump Withdraws from Marshall Plan

Donnie today announced he was causing the United States to withdraw from the Marshall Plan, calling it the" worst deal he ever saw." Just look at it he said after the second world war the industrial capacity of Western Europe and Japan was totally decimated. We were the only game in town. So what did we do? We loaned those countries money so they could buy our goods. There was no reciprocity, they had nothing to sell us. It was totally unfair. Then, as a result they were able to rebuild their economies and now they compete terribly unfairly with us by sending us more goods then they purchase, thus loaning us money as a result. When asked isn't what we did under the Marshall plan exactly what China is doing with us now? He said that is the worst deal I have ever seen the way we deal with China. He was also asked about NAFTA, what he said was the worst deal he had ever seen, the TPP what you said was the worst deal he had ever seen, and the Iran  joint deal, the worst deal he had ever seen.

Trump was asked whether the post second world war economic policies, including the Marshall Plan, had spurred the greatest period of economic prosperity in the history of our country. He said it couldn't have because it was the worst deal he ever saw. He was then asked about the state of the US economy. He said under his administration it is the greatest it has ever been. We have the strongest economy, the best stock market, the greatest military might, and the greatest leadership in the entire world, the best it's ever been. Now, he said we must make America Great again by changing everything. We are going to impose tariffs on most of the world, impose sanctions on most of the world and prevent access to the American financial network for most of the world. In fact, we may just close our borders to the rest of the world. That will make America great again.

Ask if he had consulted with anyone about his plans, He said he didn't need to because his experience brilliance and instincts were all that is necessary. He said his economic adviser, Peter Navarro, who is not really an advisor but whose role is to tell him he's right said that he was right. I have a few more tricks up my sleeve he said and they will probably pop into my mind overnight. We will see.


Sunday, June 3, 2018

The greatest deall I ever saw

So, the summit is on. How did we get there? Upon Trump's presidency beginning Kim ratcheted up his nuclear and missile testing. Trump rose to the bait. Nobody messes with Donald Trump. I have bigger missiles than you and more bombs. Eventually, Kim said let's have a sit down. The great dealmaker said you bet. Then we went into off again on again. Trump was further nearly salivating by discussions of a Nobel prize for dealing with Kim. Now is the summit is set, probably, for June 12.

Kim is not coming to the White House as a supplicant. Rather he is meeting as an equal on neutral ground in Singapore. In the build up to this, Kim has visited China twice. China is of course much more important to him than the United States. We can assume was some assurance he has discussed his strategy with China. The best intelligence we have about China is that it wishes to keep North Korea as an independent Communist buffer state in Asia but would like to see the elimination of the nuclear weapons. Kim has also had discussions with Putin. He clearly has a plan B.

Meanwhile Trump, has set the stage for the negotiations by pissing off all his allies with stupid tariffs. He tends to forget his big sanction programs require cooperation. It is an open question how long our allies are going to put up with this before they begin serious attempts to work around the United States. We may expect to see attempts to reduce the importance of the United States dollar as a reserve currency including a new basket of currencies at the IMF. It is also probable that claims will be brought to the WTO as these tariffs have been spuriously justified on the grounds of national security, something no one buys.

So, trump, still salivating over his Nobel prize has seriously reduced his bargaining position. Does it make any difference? Probably not. At this summit we can confidently expect nothing but theater and no hard results. Trump, however, Will claim he has accomplished something no one else in history has been able to do saying that Kim uses the word"Denuclearzation". He will exaggerate if not outright lie about what he has accomplished. One thing is sure, as far as a world wide reduction of nuclear weapons it will be far less than the Iran deal. Were Trump consistent, and there is your fantasy for the week, he would have to say it is the worst deal he ever saw if indeed he claims it was a deal and we know he will have to because he is, after all, the world's greatest dealmaker even though he has never made any as president and will not on this occasion.