Thursday, August 31, 2017

Is this the apocalypse?

It is looking like the Book of Revelations  has come to life. California and the northwest through Canada is ablaze. The southeastern United States is underwater. It will be a miraculous if there are not outbreaks of cholera or at least dysentery. Reckless stupid leaders are playing chicken with nuclear weapons. The Beast walks the earth.

And speaking of Donald Trump, after his usual stumbling  attempts to show concern and compassion for the victims in southeastern United States , he is back talking about ending DACA and legislating tax cuts for the top 1%. He is pursuing his nonsensical notion that giving tax cuts to, for example, Corporation that have so much cash that they use it to buy back stock, will trickle down to the disadvantaged. Today he sent out for a briefing some person named Tom Bossert to talk about the relief effort in Texas and Louisiana. This character gave long often unintelligible answers to questions and fatuously suggested not to worry there is plenty of money notwithstanding that Trump wants to decrease the budget for FEMA. It doesn't appear that the top members of the administration, and I do not include the Director of FEMA who seems to know what he is doing, have no realistic concepcion of the cost that would necessarily be incurred to rebuild the lives and property of the affected citizens. Their homes will be at least required to be taken down to the studs been rebuilt. Their possessions are gone. Many will still be on the hook to pay mortgages for their uninhabitable homes and obviously many of lost their jobs. At best there will be massive bankruptcies displaced persons..

We can safely expect Trump to engage in some sort of fantasy that there will be private public partnerships rebuilding levees, canals, roads, schools, other infrastructures and homes. We remember the larceny that took place in the use of federal funds after Katrina. But hey, there's a buck to be made here. And, of course, we need to continue the dismantling of the EPA.

The first concern has to be providing food and shelter for the displaced. They will need sanctuary somewhere. Probably they will  need to be sent to other cities. We could call them" sanctuary cities" but not tell Jeff Sessions about it. About the only thing that one can be certain of is this : what ever the Trump administration does they will screw it up.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Fake News Flash

Unconfirmed information from an unreliable source says that Pres. Trump has been impressed by the amount of volunteer relief assistance given by private individuals and companies in Texas. It was brought to his attention that not only citizens individually using their boats have rescued people but that business entities such as furniture stores have open their doors to refugees and donated things like blankets and mattresses. Other individuals and businesses have opened their doors to provide emergency quarters for flood victims. Impressed with this, Pres. Trump has been heard to say:" as you know I am not only the president of the United States but I am a billionaire. I have made many billions of dollars because of the very very incredible and fantastic deals I have made over my career. I can tell you that they are the most fantastic, incredible deals I have ever seen. You can see that for yourself by looking at my tax returns, I mean my financial statements, Tax returns are irrelevant. Because I have billions of dollars I want to participate as a private individual in this effort to provide relief for these victims. Accordingly, I am going to open up as relief centers all of my golf resorts, including Mal de Mer in Florida. I have asked for those who have booked reservations to cancel them and am requesting current occupants to cut short their stays. I have also asked my son Donald, who runs my businesses about which I know nothing other than that they're making a lot of money, to make an infusion of $100 million into the Trump foundation to be used for flood relief at the discretion of local authorities. I know that sounds like a lot of money but I'm a billionaire and I can afford it. Somebody told me that my new hotel in Washington DC is making money hand over fist and that the Trump White House boutique is doing well. I am going to provide my private fleet of planes and helicopters, the ones that say TRUMP in huge letters to fly flood victims to my resorts."

"I have instructed all federal agencies to provide whatever help and assistance as needed for the flood victims. I am also announcing this afternoon my new tax reform programs, without any detail of course, that will sharply reduce the amount of taxes paid by our citizens and companies, and revenues received by our government. I am told that somehow this all works and that it will be huge, leading to at least 7% per annum GDP growth. The details of this will be provided by somebody sometime. With all due modesty, I have already been told that might administration under my guidance has made the greatest emergency relief and rescue program ever. This will come as no surprise to those who have witnessed the incredible accomplishments of my administration under my clothes and careful management."

Real Tax Reform(it will not happen)

Fresh off what Donnie calls the most successful first six months in presidential history, Donnie will turn to tax reform. It is an odds on proposition that he will not know or care what would be in the legislation as long as it is entitled Tax Reform and maybe has his name in the title. That means it is likely to be the sort of taxing budgetary Fantasy that Paul Ryan as offered in the past. That consists of tax cuts for people and entities that already have more money than they know what to do with coupled with cuts in programs needed by the disadvantaged in our society. Probably with the help of Mick Mulvaney, that will be some" dynamic scoring" Love the kind that nonpartisan economists have consistently called" implausible" to  purport to make it revenue neutral and thus needing only 50 votes.

The current situation in the southeastern United States is going to be a real budget buster and make Ryan's fantasies even more difficult. We will see legislators from Texas, including Ted Cruz, who voted against relief in New York and New Jersey for the victims of Sandy urging the preparations for Texas and maybe Louisiana. In the past, people like then Congressman Mike Pence and congressman Mick Mulvaney wanted budget cuts elsewhere to offset any relief funds. If that happens this time, guess who will bear the brunt of it. The only thing certain is that Ryan and Mulvaney Will be turning somersaults in the dynamic scoring exercise.

We do need tax law changes and I have a few modest proposals. First, raise the tax level on passive income including capital gains to the same level as those who work for a living pay. Also make that revenues subject to the Medicare tax. Second, raise the tax levels incrementally for those having taxable incomes of $250,000 and more up to a maximum of 70%. Third, eliminate unjustifiable provisions in the tax code that favor selected industries or individuals. Fourth, pass a provision allowing repatriation of funds residing overseas by US corporations at a favorable rate but require those entities to use those monies for capital expansion and/or wage increases for their employees and not to buy back stock or engage in acquisitions. Use the tax revenue received by the Federal government from this to finance infrastructure projects.

The need for the federal government to assist in problems such as those being experienced In Texas and Louisiana serve to demonstrate that the government needs more tax revenue, not less. In a society as complex and large as ours, it should be obvious that more functions, such as healthcare, need to be financed at a national level. The democrats need to carry this message and point out to the former Democrat voters in Pennsylvania Ohio Wisconsin and Michigan that they have been duped and they better change their allegiance.

Monday, August 28, 2017

The Wall

I don't know if Donnie watches The Game of Thrones but I am sure if he does he has a serious case of" Wall Envy". Talk about a wall, that sucker is hundreds of feet high and runs all away into the ocean. If Donnie watches, he must have been distressed yesterday to see the army of the dead breach that wall with the help of a zombie Dragon. Now Donnie is about to build a wall on the southern border to keep out most of the Mexicans who he considers to be murderers, rapists, drug dealers and criminals. I am pretty sure these miscreants don't have a zombie dragon but I bet they have lots of modern devices that could breach Donnie's wall or they could go around it, or under it, or over it. If he saw that episode it must give him nightmares.

Donnie has said that Mexico will pay for the wall and that he will shut down Congress if Congress does not appropriate funds to build a wall. Apparently this is going to be a real boondoggle where the contractors will be paid twice. And speaking of Mexico, Donnie is saying that NAFTA is the worst deal he ever saw. I thought the TPP was the worst deal he ever saw. Wait a minute, it was the Iran deal that was the worst deal he ever saw. He has seen a lot of bad deals. I would think that the worst one he ever saw was the one where the lenders gave him funds to lose $1 billion in Atlantic City

Donnie has pardoned sheriff Joe Arpaio. This is not surprising. He and Sheriff Joe have a lot in common and certainly have a mutual admiration society. We look forward to the future exercise of the presidential pardon power as there may well be plenty of opportunities to use it.

Friday, August 25, 2017

The Declaration of" Enough Already" and Airing of Grievances

When in the course of domestic political events it becomes necessary for the citizens to dissolve the ties that bind them to their duly elected president, a decent respect for the opinions of mankind require them to list the grievances that caused them to so act.

1. He is an inveterate and unrepentant liar. It began with the lie that Pres. Obama was in illegitimate President. He continues to lie about petty things like the size of his inaugural crowd and continues relentlessly with important matters such as four score of accomplishment by him.

2. He has sought to wrongfully obstruct an investigation into actions undertaken by or on his behalf during the campaign and refuses to release his tax returns which may well reveal financial crimes.

3. He seeks to violate the First Amendment by suppressing the right of freedom of the press and by lying about the truthfulness reported about him.

4. He has made false campaign promises including they promised to deliver less expensive better and more comprehensive healthcare with lower deductibles. Instead he was willing to sign hey healthcare bill which provided the none of these things and actually diminished healthcare available to our citizens.

5. He seeks to divide our country by making speeches accusing those who disagree with him of being hateful and un-American.

6. He has acted recklessly in conducting foreign affairs by disrespecting our allies, coddling Russia and making reckless threats.

7. He has demonstrated incompetence and questionable mental stability. He has demonstrated ignorance in matters important to his office and shown no inclination to learn.

8. By his actions he has caused the citizenry to feel shame and embarrassment.

We therefore call upon President Donald Trump to resign in his office. Failing that, we call upon Congress to exercise its duties and pass bi-partisan legislation important to the country without regard to the demands of Pres. Trump. We call upon those entrusted with national security including the military and the intelligence community to exercise extreme vigilance and caution in dealing with Pres. Trump.

We make these requests in order to restore liberty and security to our country.

Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Donald Trump's egocentric universe.

Yesterday we witnessed a real meltdown by Donald Trump. It reminded me of the scene from the movie The Caine Mutiny when under cross-examination in court, Capt. Queeg crumbled exposing his mental instability. Of course, yesterday's events provoked an immediate firestorm reaction." Is Donald Trump a racist? Does Donald Trump think that anti-Nazis and Nazis are morally equivalent? Will Donald Trump abdicate his moral responsibilities as President?" And on and on.

This was of course entirely predictable but these subsidiary questions ignore the main problem. Donald Trump's remarks yesterday were occasioned by events in Charlottesville but they were entirely about himself, not what happened there or the participants. Donald Trump could not abide the notion that he was criticized for his remarks on Saturday. As usual, he cannot stand criticism because it suggests that he is not the abnormally brilliant and wise person he believes himself to be. It has become more and more apparent that he is totally delusional. He  believes himself to be nearly if not totally omniscient and it is unimaginable to him that everyone does not share this view. No matter is too petty to provoke these reactions. He still maintains the crowd at his inauguration was larger then that at Pres. Obama's. When he says this he is not, apparently, lying. He really believes it. This is a man who at the national prayer breakfast wanted to talk about his ratings on the apprentice being higher than those of Arnold Schwarzenegger. Everything is about him.

This is a very dangerous man. He is demonstrably ignorant and incompetent. When you couple this with his delusional view of himself you have a real problem. He has no core beliefs or ideology. He is totally about self-aggrandizement and other than that let the chips fall where they may. As has been noted by many, he is a petulant spoiled child who has tantrums. There can be no question but that right now he is going to listen to whoever tells him he was right Saturday and yesterday. That is likely to be Steve Bannon and Sebastian Gorka who constitute a malignancy on the administration.

Some have suggested that what is needed with Trump is some kind of program of containment. The question is are there enough adults in the administration and congress willing to do something? At present it does not seem to be the case. All of the careful and thoughtful analysis that may appear in the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, CNN, MSNBC, And even yesterday FOXNews is going to have no effect on Donald Trump other than to make him retreat further into his delusions. We are in serious trouble.

Monday, August 14, 2017

It is do-over time

Today Donnie went on TV and said" as I said Saturday" and then said what he did not say Saturday, that is that Nazis, white supremacist's and white nationalists are terrible ignorant intolerable people. For the past two days  the chattering class has been busily talking about what was not said Saturday and what that means. Now they are busily engaged in discussing what was said today and not Saturday and what that means. This will keep them busily engaged and employed until the next crisis of  words occurs.

We can fully expect Donnie's apologists to explain his statements of Saturday and today. Perhaps Kellyanne Will revert to an earlier explanation she used in which she explained that Donnie had said the same thing on two occasions but had just use different words but what was in his heart was always  the same. Sarah may explain the reference to violence and hatred coming from many places for a long time by discussing Donnie's keen interest in history and that he was probably including an implicit reference to Nat Turner's rebellion in 1831 which resulted in the death of over 50 White Virginians. Donnie likes broad historical perspective.

Meanwhile, that lion of civil rights, attorney general Sessions, will lead a federal investigation into the events at Charlottesville. It could hardly be in better hands.

Rumor has it that in the Steve Bannon wing of the administration there is concern that the nazis and white supremacists will not be treated fairly. Another uncorroborated rumor from an unreliable source says that Bannon would like to see a presidential commission headed up by Sebastian Gorky looking into whether the civil rights of these groups we're violated. It was noted that there is a long and honorable tradition by such groups marching and gathering carrying torches through the night constituting  symbolic speech which should not have been interrupted. Bannon hopes to remind Donnie who voted for him.

Friday, August 11, 2017

Is Trump actually right this time?

Currently, the topic de jour for the chattering class is the war of words twixt the Don and North Korea. There is incredible consternation that trump is escalating the war of words, and bringing us to the brink of nuclear war. The complaint is that he is not using the right terminology and there is not tight control twix he and his national security staff including Rex Tillotson. This lack of following established norms is apparently deemed totally irresponsible.

Let's think about with whom he is dealing. These guys do not themselves follow any acceptable normative behavior. Rather, they make irresponsible belligerent statements and take provocative actions with nuclear development and missile launches. Those who are constantly critical of Trump's current behavior also tend to constantly reiterate that we have no good options and that diplomacy has failed through four or five administrations. They want diplomacy done in a polite manner and to somehow rely on China and sanctions. Because this is not worked in the past it is assumed that it will now.

Now I am no advocate for Donald Trump. Generally speaking, I find him to be an ignorant, lying incompetent. But this might be the one time when his self serving, egotistical bullshit is useful. What is he actually saying? Pretty clearly, it is" don't screw with us, I am tougher and have more power than you." In the alternative, he is saying "don't try to bullshit a bullshitter". At the same time, we can safely assume that at lower levels there are some diplomatic talks. There is also the new sanctions, the effectiveness of which are totally dependent upon China. Will China enforce them? That depends upon what they think about the alternative. In this respect also, Trumps behavior maybe useful.

Kim Il Jung is either rational or is not. If he is irrational all bets are off regardless of what Trump does. It is completely rational that he insists on his nuclear weapons after watching what happened to Qaddafi and Saddam without them. If he is rational, he certainly can recognize Trump's behavior as being pretty much like his own. That, combined with the sanctions may well lead to something constructive.

To me, the most worrisome thing about this is that Trump is clearly enjoying himself. In the media it is all about him and he gets to portray himself as tough and powerful. Opioids are not the only thing that is addictive and addictive behavior is hard to control.

Tuesday, August 8, 2017

The chattering class

The phrase" chattering class" originated I believe in England. It described a certain segment of the educated privileged upper middle and upper-class. They would have endless dinner parties and cocktail parties where they would stand around in exchange insightful comments on the issues of the day. But, they would never get their hands dirty and actually put their insights into action. There was nothing but endless, repetitive chatter.

We now have our own chattering class in this country. It is the endless, fungible hosts and panelists on our news networks. These people gathere daily, hour after hour and endlessly chatter about the newest tidbit of information, or finding nothing new rehash yesterday's. For instance, if it is learned that Donald Trump had a cheeseburger for breakfast that would be a topic. After the host  announced that Donald Trump had a cheeseburger for breakfast he or she would immediately turn to the panel. One of these panelists would immediately launch into analysis of whether that meant that Donald Trump was announcing a new protective trade policy by demonstrating we grow all our own food. Another what interject that it had to do with Trump making an anti-environmentalist statement showing that he was unconcerned about the amount of crops and rangeland it took two grow beef compared to grains and vegetables. Someone else would want to discuss small businesses that make hamburgers and the like. Then they would bat it around back-and-forth. Perhaps they would then move onto some other similarly crucial issue. such as Twitter accounts.

My point is that because they have so much time to fill there doesn't seem to be any hierarchy of importance of issues. Nor is there a conclusion. Instead there is just the republican surrogates or operatives exchanging with the democrat surrogates or operatives, endlessly. Years ago in discussing how the general population of Germany in the 1930s could live with what they knew was going on, Hannah Arent coined the phrase the banality of evil. We are now in a period of the banality of political discussion. All comments, no matter how silly or superficial seem to be given equal credibility. There doesn't seem to be much breakdown in the artificial politeness of this nonsense.  The phrase" that is total nonsense" doesn't crop up much. From what I understand, if you want totally one sided comments the place to go is talk radio but the people who listen are already totally committed to the truth of what's being said. So, confirmation bias rules the day. According to a poll, 73% of the population thinks that Donald Trump is a liar but far higher numbers either approve of him or think he is doing a decent job. This suggests to me that all of this network news chatter is completely useless, Accomplishing nothing. Just tell us what happened. We can figure it out.

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Trump trumpets Trump accomplishments

In a brief public statement, the Don modestly stated that his administration had accomplished more in the first six months then any administration in history, other than perhaps that of FDR. It has been historic he said. The Don did not bother to list those accomplishments, that was because time would not allow. The Don did express his disappointment that he has had nothing to sign lately because he really likes to sign things. Luckily, he is allowed to do so without reading them.

Later, he said that one of the Goldman Sachs guys would explain his tax program but briefly outlined that plan. Under it, everyone would get a reduction in taxes but it would be revenue neutral. Corporations would pay a far lower tax rate, immediately expense capital items but lose all their exemptions and deductions, sometimes called tax loopholes. It was explained that those who currently pay no income tax because they make so little would also get a reduction in the tax rate. It it was explained that it would be well received by those because they would now be not paying tax at a much lower rate. These across the board tax reductions would be fully paid and more by the incredible stimulating effect calculated by modern double dynamic scoring.

A CEO of an international mix conglomerate was asked about how these tax changes would affect his business. He was elated. If our company pays less taxes we will have money available for stock buybacks, which will result in my stock options becoming more valuable. When asked his opinion of the the strategy of a loss of tax loopholes as an offset to lower rates but resulting in the same amount of tax being paid, the CEO said" what good would that do me"? But, after further reflection he said we could immediately get our lobbyists at work in creating a new set of tax loopholes which they are nearly always successful in getting passed and we end up ahead. So, this tax reform is a good idea.

House Speaker Ryan when asked about this sketched out tax reform plan stated that it was not nearly complicated enough resulting in people being able to actually understand its effect. We need a border adjustment tax as part of the plan because nobody really understands it well or has any idea of what the consequences might be. That's why it is my baby.